NYU SternSession 2: Winners and Losers
SESSION 02 · ECONOMICS OF AI

Winners and Losers at the Firm Level
Value Creation ≠ Value Capture

THE BIG QUESTION

AI could create trillions of dollars of value. Who actually gets to keep it?

1History2Firms3Labor4Macro5Stack6Politics
Before classPrepare, explore and arrive with a point of view

2.1 · SESSION FOCUS

Value Creation ≠ Value Capture

Value creation compared with value capture
2.2

BEFORE CLASS

Read. Watch. Arrive curious.

Required reading

Optional deep dive · Prefer the written word?

2.3 PREWORK SUBMISSION

Prepare an example and consider the additional questions in Brightspace.
Submit your responses before class.

Follow the Money. Three exercises/questions for you before class

Pick one AI product you use. Trace who supplies the model, chips, cloud and customer relationship. Which layer has the strongest economic moat?

Exercise 1: Value Chain Mapper

AI Value Chain Mapper

Scenario 1 of 4
SCENARIO 1

Frontier Scarcity — Today

Frontier AI capabilities remain concentrated among a small number of firms. Advanced GPUs are scarce, training frontier models is extremely expensive, and switching among the best-performing systems may not be frictionless.

THE $100 QUESTION

Who captures the $100 of value?

Imagine that the AI ecosystem creates $100 of total economic value. Who ultimately captures it?

Total allocated80%20% still unallocated
20%
20%
20%
20%

Exercise 2: What is your moat from Exercise 1?

What makes this value capture durable?

Select one or more. There is no prescribed answer.

Exercise 3: Which firm is most likely to be bankrupt in 10 years?

Make your prediction.

Anonymous · Choose one response.

Please complete the Prework Memo and other questions prior to class.Open Session 2 prework in Brightspace
During classSlides + Zoom
2.4

Class Session Links

SESSION 2 SLIDES

Open the Session 2 slides Google Slides

SESSION 2 LIVE CLASS

Join the Session 2 Zoom NYU Zoom

2.5 · Evidence

Charts, cases and current examples · to be added

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After class follow-upConsolidate, submit and reflect

2.5 · AFTER CLASS

3 Minute Memo — Quick Class Reflections.

Open the Session 2 reflection form